Crude
Crude - WTI to Europe
WTI remains highly competitive into NWE.
Light-sweet North Sea grades lose premiums as CPC outage resolves.
However, North Sea light-sweet remains globally uncompetitive.
Crude - Brent
Landed values for heavy-sour crude have continued to decline globally.
VZ crude grades have been a primary driver of this weakening.
This has led to a significant divergence in complex margins within NW Europe from light-sweet (red) against heavy-sour grades (blue).
Crude – WTI displaced into Asia
Dubai swap spreads and regional AG FOB premiums have gained throughout the month with US-Iran escalations. Due to competitive freight, and India potentially reducing Urals imports.
Despite Brent-Dubai beginning to weaken, freight keeps Atlantic basin crudes West of Suez.
Suggesting that Brent needs to fall further.
Despite all of this, geopolitical risks remain.
High VLCC freight rates have been the primary driver of relative expensive WTI into the Far East.
