Light Ends
Mogas - RBOB
The Q1 TA Arb remains shut, Q2 TA Arb beginning to seasonally open for ARA refineries.
However, lowered blend costs in USGC becoming workable into NYH led to an immediate weakening of spreads.
Within the F4 to F1 contango switch appears to show that outright switching towards F4 is unworkable, with underlying bullish pressure felt for HOU based refiners on component pricing.
Incentivizing de-stocking of F1 grade in prompt, which is marginally bullish Q2 RBOB and TA Arb.
Mogas - LatAm Arbs, USGC
TC14 clean freight tightness is impacting attractiveness of USGC CBOB into LATAM.
Ultimately providing some support to EBOB spreads at the expense of RBOB spreads.
Lengthening MR picture in the US Gulf will provide some uplift soon.
Mogas - Naphtha
RBOB/C5 has widened recently despite rising naphtha demand from Venezuela.
Bad weather in MED and tensions in ME have taken E/W nap to new historical highs.
This could enhance more cargoes of C5 being exported out of USGC, should vessels be available.
Accompanied by tight fundamentals in Asia/EU naphtha and risks to RU refining capacity returning, Gas-nap spreads could correct in the short term.
