Freight
Market Overview
Freight - Dirty Outlook
USGC Aframax fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with tonnage widely available for a workable TD25 arb.
A reopening Strait will pull tonnage towards the AG, reversing current weakness.
A draining Gulf fleet will tighten supply and firm rates, despite an initial risk-off as the market gains certainty on Strait transit terms.
Freight - Clean Outlook
USGC tonnage remains long at 18 ships versus the 90-day average of 14, with FSD models forecasting rates to decline to WS 205.
Arb economics are unsupportive, with Houston to Rotterdam diesel closed. Workable arbs for July: gasoline 88 RON to San Jose +7.20 cpg, Houston to Santos diesel +9.95 cpg.
As AG exports resume, the USGC swing-supplier premium will initially erode, but increased tonne-miles from Venezuelan and Iranian flows should create a higher long-term equilibrium price.
