Crude
Crude - General
After being uncompetitive into Asia for the past 2 months, WTI landed prices are now close to Murban, mainly due to fall in freight rates
Murban FOB may actually have room to rise as the Saudi OSPs were less favourable than AG spot cargoes but Brent-Dubai EFS increasing may cap WTI recovery
Only 70% of China’s total crude import quotas were released, limiting ability for importers to frontload their buying
For 2026, we anticipate higher % of term cargoes vs spot or China and India, thus limiting upside to the Dubai benchmark.
However, specific to the Jan trading window for March loaders, Saudi OSPs were not as compelling as the weak spot market. We anticipate more spot medium buying vs term cargo nominations as a result.
Refining margins are holding up thus far more due to the weakness in the crude market rather than strength in product cracks
This should keep interest in buying activity for the marginal simple tranche
