Light Ends
Light Distillates: Gasoline
Unplanned RFCC outages in GS Caltex, SK Ulsan and Dalin in Dec caused an upsized move on gas E/W.
The picture shifts this month, with Feb E/W correcting lower to defend outlets
ARA and even Houston barrels became competitive into EoS locations (including Australia) against Singapore barrels.
Mogas cracks are at 5-year highs now, dominated by unplanned FCC shutdowns. Expect more downside risks to Sing 92 crack into Feb
With arb pressure from the West and returning supply, expect to see Sing92 spreads and cracks under pressure
Watch out for Balikpapan’s new 90 kbd RFCC start up in March
Crude - General
Steam crackers are coming out of peak TA period in December. Bleak petchem margins may limit significant naphtha demand uplift
With Venz backing out Russian naphtha, that flow may end up in Asia. Additionally, there is uptick in naphtha supply coming from the Middle East, which may weaken MOPJ Feb/Mar spread
