Freight
Market Overview
VLCC rates have blown past our previous call, driven by Red Sea rerouting and Asian buyers diversifying crude sources. We stay bullish on freight but wouldn't bet on another spike from here, prices are already in uncharted territory.
Headline TD3c is now above the March peak seen during US-Iran strikes, but this time it's not just geopolitics. Real spot tightness is driving it:
Sidi Kerir loadings of Saudi crude to Asia are going the long way round the Cape, eating into vessel availability.
Demand from inside Hormuz is rising too, with Iraqi and Saudi grades getting lifted.
TD22 (USGC-China) has jumped sharply, pointing to stronger Asian appetite for US crude.
