Crude
Crude - General
Brent-linked crudes remain uncompetitive into export markets on the strength of the DFL and wide WTI/Brent, Brent-Dubai EFS.
The strength in the prompt Brent market means we may see WAF barrels struggling to clear.
It has also seen some of the best econs for WTI to flow into Europe in recent weeks, pushing TD25 to new heights.
WAF crudes have largely lost competitiveness globally, as demonstrated by Bonny Light in the graphic.
Having spent most of Q3 and Q4 around average levels, WAF crudes are currently sitting around $4/bbl more expensive into the Far East vs competing grades.
Crude - Brent-Dubai EFS
The surging Brent-Dubai EFS has been driven by the weakness in Dubai and the geopolitical situation on Iran.
Brent-Dubai is expected to fall as Atlantic Basin refineries enter maintenance season and light sweet crudes would need to arb to the East.
Currently we see unusual opportunities for Eastern crudes into Europe.
