Infrastucture impact

Market Overview

Confirmed disruptions through March 9

Gulf Infrastructure

Country	Facility / Output	Volume Disrupted	Status
Iraq	Rumaila, West Qurna 2, Maysan	2.5–3+ mn b/d	Escalating; FM imminent
Kuwait	All fields & refineries	2.6 mn b/d crude + 860k b/d products	Force majeure Mar 7
Saudi Arabia	Ras Tanura refinery (550k b/d)	~550k b/d offline. Unclear	Shut since Mar 2. Noted on Mar 9
Qatar	Ras Laffan & Mesaieed LNG	~20% global LNG / 81 mn t/yr	Force majeure Mar 4
UAE / ADNOC	Fujairah, Mussafah. Fujairah Oil Terminal	3.5 mn b/d managing down. Attacks on 9 Mar	Partial via pipeline. Loadings halted
Bahrain	Sitra/BAPCO refinery	405k b/d	Missile hit Mar 5

Two of OPEC's largest producers offline

Country Deep-Dive: Iraq & Kuwait

Iraq

Rumaila, West Qurna 2, Maysan fields — 2.5 mn b/d cut and rising
Southern port storage full; output may drop from 4 mn → 1 mn b/d
Potential total cuts: 3+ mn b/d
Kurdistan region: foreign companies halting operations
Southern Iraq accounts for ~90% of Iraq's export revenue

All fields and refineries — force majeure declared March 7
2.6 mn b/d crude + 860k b/d product exports halted
Cuts underway; no pipeline bypass available
Kuwait has zero Red Sea routing alternative
Refinery output includes critical middle distillates and naphtha for Asia

Kuwait

The heavyweights under fire

Country Deep-Dive: Saudi Arabia & UAE

Saudi Arabia

Ras Tanura refinery (550k b/d) — shut since March 2 after drone strike
Shaybah super-giant field (1 mn b/d) — 21 drones intercepted; remains operational
Juaymah LPG terminal disrupted <pre-crisis>
Saudi routing 2.0–2.5 mn b/d via Yanbu (Red Sea) — a fraction of normal Hormuz volumes
Aramco hits storage capacity within weeks without resolution
Two oil fields cut production on Mar 9

3.5 mn b/d total output — managing offshore production down
ADCOP/Habshan-Fujairah pipeline capacity: up to 1.8 mn b/d
Fujairah port partially operational again after fires, but shut again after attacks on March 9
Mussafah fuel terminal struck March 2
JPMorgan expects further UAE constraints to emerge this week

UAE / ADNOC

20% of global LNG supply - offline

Qatar & LNG

Ras Laffan — struck by drones March 2; all production halted
Mesaieed complex also halted — downstream products: urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium all stopped
Qatar supplies approximately 20% of global LNG; its absence strains European and Asian spot markets simultaneously
No near-term bypass: Qatar LNG is seaborne-only and ships must transit Hormuz

One-fifth of global petroleum - blocked

The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait shut not via formal blockade, but because insurers pulled war risk coverage and ship owners evacuated crews from an active conflict zone. Even if the conflict ends today, reopening Hormuz requires crews, coverage, and coast guard confidence — none of which return overnight. Goldman Sachs forecasts crude exceeding $100/bbl this week absent resolution, with $120+ scenarios if the conflict extends beyond three weeks.

84% of Hormuz crude flows to Asia

The cascade into Asia

The disruption cascaded across Asia with extraordinary speed. Within 48 hours of the Hormuz closure, refineries from China to Indonesia were declaring force majeure, shutting units, and lobbying governments for emergency SPR releases. Asian steam crackers — which source over 60% of their naphtha feedstock from the Middle East — face a structural raw material crisis that cannot be solved by Atlantic basin alternatives alone.

Countries now facing feedstock issues: China · India · South Korea · Japan · Singapore · Indonesia · Vietnam · Pakistan · Bangladesh · Myanmar · Philippines