Products
Ptoducts Markets
NW Europe Jet Crack
>$90/bbl
Highest since 2008
European Diesel Futures
+23%
Biggest single-session move in two years
Singapore Gasoil Crack
2× in one week
Levels last seen post-Russia/Ukraine invasion
Asia Jet-Diesel Regrade
Stratospheric
Jet premium over diesel at extreme levels
Gulf Product Exports
1.7 mn b/d
Disrupted — diesel, LPG, naphtha, jet
Atlantic Basin Offset
Partial only
Lighter grades ≠ middle distillate yield profile
HOGO re-priced higher last 2 days — shields PADD 1/2, closes USGC MR ULSD → Europe arb
USGC MR jet arbs to Europe still work
WCI LR2 ULSD cargoes pointing East; some cargoes u-turning from Red Sea → Asia
Jet vs gasoil E/W wildly volatile — limited liquidity
Debate: Is Asia in more trouble on jet than Europe?
Naphtha cracks oddly low despite strong spreads
Spreads doing what they need to; FO outperforms naphtha on slate lightening
Petchem demand destruction tanking naphtha demand
E/W already at max arb
Gas/Nap rally looks like a sell — naphtha is first to feel demand destruction as flat price rises
Asia: Cash diffs rallying — physical lead problem, refiners not offering product
Europe: cheapest source of supply for Atlantic, AG & East Africa
EW open — arbs to East materialising despite freight spike
US: Europe pricing cheaper into LatAm destinations (short-lived — 2–3 windows)
Physical premiums in Asia to stabilise or move up if arbs materialise
Structural Analysis
Supply Chain Recovery
Recovery Outlook
Gulf infrastructure damage requires significant repair (refineries, pipelines, terminals)
Shut-in fields face reservoir complications on restart after prolonged closure
Lingering war risk insurance restrictions keep some vessels away from the region
Conflict leaves security uncertainty that delays crew and ship owner confidence
Estimated minimum: 2 months (refining) · 2.5 months (petrochemicals)
