Light Ends
Market Overview
Naphtha
With the uncertainty of flows from the Middle East, naphtha cracks and spreads firmed up.
MOPJ spreads are expected to remain supported as supply options into naphtha-hungry Asia are limited, with lower flows also from Russia due to refinery attacks and the Med from lower crude availability from CPC loading.
MOGAS
Prompt E5 barges above +$300/t have paralyzed blending, and with Algerian-grade blend costs around $90/t above Houston, the USGC now competes against ARA into high-octane destinations.
Sing92 remains the weakest link, with E/W held at historic lows by Europe rather than Asian fundamentals.
Singapore regrade in prompt months remain below zero, but turns positive from November.
Seasonal stockbuilding for heating in Japan increases kero demand in winter.
Arbs from North East Asia and South East Asia remain open into USWC throughout 2027.
