Crude
WTI now expensive everywhere on the BASKET basis, except the Med.
WAF became very cheap with diffs plummeting in mid-July; now cheaper to Asia and very cheap in Europe & WCI.
But Brent market likely to clear with expectations of the AG sour loaders likely getting delayed.
Refinery are currently sitting on the sidelines whilst they get clarity on Hormuz and digesting local overhangs.
In Asia there will be MORE demand for WTI for Q4.
WTI/Brent widened rapidly upon Hormuz re-escalation.
Brent is likely to clear out soon though if WAF heads East and AG sours dry up.
WTI/Brent will still have to average narrower levels in H2, since US commercial crude inventory cannot be drawn forever.
Seasonality makes for some nuance; autumn turnarounds are ahead.
With the loss in global Medium-Sour supply, a US benefactor may be Mars.
Particularly given the underlying yield slate favouring diesel production.
November and December Mars / WTI diffs may likewise see gains.
