Freight
/ Freight
TC2 rates have remained volatile with the broader market as esclataion waxes and wanes.
Current seven day ahead MR supply count appears 3 over the 90-day average at 21 vessels.
Despite this, TC2 is likely to remain supported.
Med and NWE are seeing lots of cargo enquiry for Naphtha.
USGC earnings are much higher than NWE; expect all ballasters to point to the USGC.
Ultimately, no real reason for TC2 to weaken at the moment.
TC14 rates see-sawed through July.
Diesel arbs into LATAM largely open, supported by lost Russian supply. TA diesel arbs shut.
Closed NWE diesel arbs have capped prices, though likely to change.
Gasoline arbs into LATAM reopened last.
MR Tonnage counts are tight after elevated fixture activity last week. Incremental vessel demand is now neutral.
USGC earnings are much higher than NWE; expect all ballasters to point to the USGC.
WAF TD20 looks undervalued.
WAF tonnage counts remain below average: 10 vs 13 Suezmaxes in the 14-day window.
Bonny Light and WAF grades broadly undervalued into NWE. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains under threat, more Suezmaxes will be needed for Yanbu.
TD25 outlook less bullish now even though Afra avails are materially tight at just 5 Afras vs 18 average.
The WTI RBI into Europe is overvalued by $5/bbl and USGC Afras are overvalued.
TD20 has more potential upside now than TD25.
Nikolas PlonskiOil Market Analyst - AmericasEmail: nikolas.plonski@spartacommodities.comICE: niplonski
Jay MarooHead of Product ExpertsEmail: jay.maroo@spartacommodities.comICE: jamaroo
James Noel-BeswickHead of CommoditiesEmail: james.noel-beswick@spartacommodities.comICE: janoelbeswic
Matt KellyAccount ExecutiveEmail: matt.kelly@spartacommodities.com ICE: matkelly
