Freight
/ Freight
TC14 FFA see-sawed through July.
Diesel arbs into LATAM largely open, supported by lost Russian supply.
Closed NWE diesel arbs have capped prices, though likely to change.
Gasoline arbs unsupportive of TC14; only Guatemala open for US exporters.
Tight USGC inventories and cheaper ARA into LATAM mean USGC basis must weaken to retake share.
Tonnage set to surge: no incremental vessel demand vs 21 incoming (5 over the 90-day MA), leaving forecasted FFA bearish.
One catch: weak TC2 earnings leave owners reluctant to fix TC14, demanding higher rates to offset poor TCE.
WAF DPP TD20 looks bullish now.
Tonnage dropped below average today: 10 vs 13 Suezmaxes in the 14-day window.
Bonny Light and WAF grades broadly undervalued into NWE.If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait comes under attack, more Suezmaxes will be needed for Yanbu.
TD25 has improved this week despite rates jumping 80 WS points, with avails tightening to just 11 Afras vs 18 average.
The WTI RBI is back to neutral. Afras are tight in Europe too, so few will outright ballast to the USGC given increasing NWE and Med options.
In Q4 2026 we expect more Asian demand, with increased West to East (Pacific) LATAM and US VLCC flow to Asia.
Nikolas PlonskiOil Market Analyst - AmericasEmail: nikolas.plonski@spartacommodities.comICE: niplonski
Jay MarooHead of Product ExpertsEmail: jay.maroo@spartacommodities.comICE: jamaroo
James Noel-BeswickHead of CommoditiesEmail: james.noel-beswick@spartacommodities.comICE: janoelbeswic
Nathan PendolinoAccount ExecutiveEmail: nathan.pendolino@spartacommodities.comICE: npdenolino
